Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust summer/winter breeding areas (June – November 2022)

The latest models suggest that La Niña will continue to persist during the summer and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal will intensify further. If the models are correct, the negative IOD will be one of the strongest, if not the strongest, on record this autumn. A persistent La Niña favours above-normal rainfall in summer breeding areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea from July to September. A negative IOD favours above-normal rains in the summer breeding areas along the Indo-Pakistan border and dry conditions during the autumn in the Horn of Africa. As current locust numbers are extremely low, it will take several successive generations of successful breeding before locusts could increase to threatening levels.

Hence, the situation is expected to remain calm to at least October and likely beyond.

Summer breeding areas (June/July–October/November)

• Sahel of W Africa to Eritrea: wetter than normal (July–September), drier than normal (October), wetter than normal (November, Mauritania and Mali only)

• Yemen interior: wetter than normal (June–September), normal (October)

• NE Ethiopia (Afar region): wetter than normal (June–September), drier than normal (October)

• N Somalia / E Ethiopia (Somali region): wetter than normal (July–August), drier than normal (September– November)

• Indo-Pakistan: wetter than normal (June, September–October), normal (July–August)

Winter breeding areas (November)

• Red Sea: drier than normal

• Gulf of Aden: drier than normal

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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