Ethiopia Food Security Outlook Update, June 2019 to January 2020

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to persist due to below-average seasonal rainfall

Key Messages

In the Bale lowlands, East, and West Hararghe zones of Oromia, major parts of Somali region, and northeastern Afar Region, poor households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2020. Only one round of food assistance has been delivered by WFP, JEOP and the Government of Ethiopia based on the HRP figure released this year. It is likely that a break in the PSNP food assistance pipeline will occur at the end of June 2019. If food aid does not resume after mid July 2019, worst affected households � though not twenty percent of the population - in areas currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will move to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and levels of acute malnutrition may rise further.

Following the below-average performance of the Gu/Genna rainy season, southeastern pastoral areas are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least November 2019 due to the poor regeneration of pasture and water resources that have negatively impacted livestock productivity and household income. The forecasted near-average 2019 Deyr rainy season is expected to lead to gradual improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity, though it may not significantly improve household food and income access.

The overall 2019 Belg harvests are estimated to be below average in most Belg-producing areas of the country, due to delayed, erratically distributed, and below-average cumulative rains across Belg producing areas of Oromia, Tigray, SNNPR and Amhara which will lead to a significant reduction in household food access. Delayed or failed planting of crops, particularly in lowland areas of Bale, and East and West Hararghe; and delayed planting in northeastern Amhara and Southern Tigray will lead to either no production or a one to two-month delay in the harvesting period. Poor households in northeastern Amhara, and East and West Hararghe of Oromia are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the extended June to September 2019 lean season until harvests begin.

Source: World Food Programme